Clarification regarding the two sections on the ballot for Presidential candidate:
The ballot gives two opportunities to vote for the Presidential candidate, the first in a section labeled “Delegates-At-Large”, the second in a section “District Delegates”. The basis for these two separate sections is based on prior methods of awarding delegates to the candidates, which require the ballot to have both options. But for the current and future elections, it is only the first question that actually matters. The candidate who receives the most votes in the first section will receive all Ohio delegates (“winner-takes-all”). So while both sections will be counted, only one will “count.”
It is important to note that you are not voting for the candidates themselves, but for delegates who pledge themselves to that candidate (and hence their authority to broker at the convention).
Polling Update Abridged Version:
As of Friday, 3/11, the race in Ohio is close between Kasich and Trump, with all other candidates far behind. All polling showed them within 6 points of each other with the latest Fox news poll showing Kasich up by 5. Since Ohio is winner-takes-all, with 50 delegates on the line, a vote for Cruz or Rubio is a wasted vote. Only one poll shows Cruz getting closer.
Polling Update Expanded Edition:
Disclaimer: Playing politics and poll watching is not my elevated view of how a democratic republic is supposed to operate at its best. Nevertheless, in today’s political climate, I would be negligent if I did not pass on this information to you. Again, I offer this information in the spirit of suggestion and keeping you informed.
To clarify for those of you who are voting based on the current polls and primary results: In my suggestions, I mentioned the only poll available at the time on Michigan which showed John Kasich polling just ahead of Donald Trump. By the next day, other polls showing Kasich behind were available, and in fact Mr. Trump won that state on Tuesday. It is not a winner take all state, and so Kasich still picked up 17 delegates, as did Senator Cruz. Trump won 25.
Ohio polls immediately showed Trump ahead by 6 points today which is up by three more points since the Michigan election. Then Fox news came out with the single poll showing Kasich ahead with 34% Followed by Trump 5 points later at 29% then, as has been consistent in all the polling data, there is steep drop before you get to Cruz at 19% and Rubio at a mere 7%. Sunday’s polls show a tie in one poll with Cruz as close as only 6 points behind, and Kasich up by 6 in the other with Cruz trailing by a full 20. This means for those of you playing the numbers, Cruz is not likely a contender in OH. To pick a winner, only Trump and Kasich may take that top spot and only the winner walks away with all 50 delegates.
Ohio’s 50 are the only delegates we affect. My support for John Kasich remains on principal of his record nationally and his work in Ohio as well as his support for issues we value. It is for those of you working the numbers that I present this latest data. Kasich is still the only one that can take these delegates from Trump.
Lastly, on a national level, there is discussion of Kasich taking a Vice Presidential offering. I have heard two interviews lately. One in which Kasich categorically stated he would remain our governor if he does not run for the top slot when asked if he would be VP for Trump. In the second he seemed to say the same thing when asked generally if he would accept a VP offer, presumably from Cruz, and he at first said something to the same effect went on about not going negative because he still hoped to win the Republican nomination at the convention. He hedged in actually ruling it out, and it should be noted that he is term limited and cannot run again for the same office. What the future will bring falls under Hakol Byidei Shamayim, as always. What it means is that he is being considered for the position and that a strong showing in OH will help him for either position.
Rivka says
Doesn’t Ohio send 66 delegates to the convention?